Auburn Basketball vs. Arizona: Matchup Breakdown and Prediction
Auburn's lighter non-conference schedule takes a brief intermission as the 12th-ranked Arizona Wildcats arrive on The Plains this Friday night for the Tigers' first true test of the season.
How to watch:
Date: Friday, November 13 | Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Neville Arena (Auburn, AL)
TV: ESPN2 | Live Stream: ESPN+
Tahaad Pettiford, the SEC's leading scorer averaging 22 points per game, put up 30 against the Wildcats in Tucson last season. Unfortunately, that's the only positive thing to say about Auburn's performance. The Wildcats put the Tigers away in quick fashion, 97-68.
Will Auburn be able to flip the script this season, hand Arizona a massive upset, and push its non-conference home game win streak to 70? Or will the European duo of the Wildcats, Ivan Kharchenkov and Motiejus (Mo) Krivas, and 5-star freshman guard Caleb Holt be too much for Steven Pearl's second-year squad?
Size Test
Auburn's two new bigs, Bukky Oboye and Narcisse Ngoy, both had slower-than-expected starts. Ngoy has impressed more recently, averaging 10 rebounds and eight points a game, but his limited playing time has stood out, as he's played just 19 and 14 minutes in Auburn's first two regular-season games.
Coach Pearl did a great job adding these two 7-footers in the offseason, but they are both smaller than Arizona's 7-foot-2 Mo Krivas, who is averaging 18 points and eight rebounds this season. Ngoy was listed as questionable for the App. State game due to back spasms but still played – having a healthy Ngoy will go a long way in containing Krivas and staying ahead on the glass.
Perimeter Shooting
Auburn enters Friday night shooting 40% from beyond the arc, and this is where they can do some damage. In Arizona's first three games, their opponents have made 38% of their three-point attempts, putting them among the nation's worst teams in defending the perimeter.
If there were ever a get-right game for Kevin Overton, it's here and now. Struggling to calibrate against App State, he finished with just one made shot from the floor off a gift pass from Pettiford for Auburn's final score.
Red Hot Haad
Pettiford led the way with 26 points off of floaters, triples, and nimble finishes at the rim against Appalachian State. But what's impressing Coach Pearl most is how he's handling the ball:
“When he sees that first one go, that confidence continues to be through the roof,” Coach Pearl said after the game. “What I’m most pleased is three assists, no turnovers. Seven assists, no turnovers in two games.”
"Program Leader Pettiford" is already looking more comfortable this season than last. He will face his most talented opposition yet in Arizona's freshman guard Caleb Holt, who is already drawing NBA attention at 6-foot-5 and averaging 15 points and nearly seven rebounds per game.
Depth
Following the App. State game, Coach Pearl emphasized the importance of once again having a useful bench:
“It’s crucial for us to buy into the depth we have. Guys coming in having had a four-minute break, it makes a huge difference. Our depth’s got to be our calling card. I’m confident in all 10 of our guys, and then I’ve got Blake (Muschalek) and Simon (Walker) on the bench, who I’m just as confident in as well. Our best teams have always had that. That’s something we’ve got to continue to do.”
As important as anything else in this game, the Tigers' ability to constantly have fresh legs on the court could give them an edge over Arizona. The Wildcats get just a small share of production from their bench (18% of points scored) as they keep some of their starters on the court for 30-35 minutes per game.
Auburn's bench has been a major source of offense so far at 42% of total points scored. Significant contributions off the bench have come from Kolby King, George Kimble III, Owen Freeman, and Adam Olsen.
Final Thoughts and Predictions
Whether it's an edge in perimeter shooting or depth, the Tigers still have a very tall task ahead of them. But I'm a homer and this squad's chemistry has been through the roof up until this point. This team isn't unbeatable. UCLA already proved that, beating the Wildcats by nine in neutral territory.
The lights have never been too bright for Pettiford. With the longest NCAA nonconference home winning streak on the line and a sold-out Neville Arena, I predict the Tigers to take this one. Bronny James left Neville Arena with a loss. I think Bryce James will do the same.
Final Score Prediction:
Auburn 84, Arizona 82
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