Week 9 Preview: Auburn Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

As Auburn enters a third consecutive 0-4 start in SEC play, Hugh Freeze and the Tigers head to Fayetteville searching for more than a close loss. With Ashton Daniels and Deuce Knight on standby, can the Tigers salvage this historically bad start?

How to watch:
Date: Saturday, Oct. 25 | Time: 12:45 p.m. ET
Location: Razorback Stadium (Fayetteville, AR)
TV: SEC Network | Live stream: Fubo

Freeze's Fate

Let’s get this out of the way: close isn’t going to cut it for Hugh Freeze. You may recall that Arkansas was the last opponent Bryan Harsin faced on October 31, 2022, before his firing. Since the start of conference play, fans have heard the same message that Auburn just needs to get over the hump and everything will start clicking.

At this point, it’s bordering on con-man levels of blowing smoke, and AD John Cohen might finally see the writing on the wall. On Monday, Freeze said it would be “huge” to get public support from Cohen, like Mike Norvell (Florida State) and Luke Fickell (Wisconsin) recently received from their athletic directors.

“It would be huge. That would make everyone feel a lot better, for sure,” Freeze said. “I haven’t talked to John. I always say John has been so supportive ever since, obviously, my hire. … They have a job to do and, certainly, he has people he has to answer to. I know how close we are. I know I can get this fixed.”

Auburn’s defensive unit has more than held up against every ranked opponent this year, but the other side of the ball continues to regress under Freeze. This is a winnable game for Auburn, but win or lose, the fate of Hugh Freeze may already be sealed, a la Billy Napier.

Offense Under Scrutiny

Certainly not a shocking analysis, as this has been the case all season, but this game will be more about Auburn’s attack showing signs of life against Arkansas’ defensive unit than about Auburn’s defense shutting down the Razorbacks. Will Freeze’s offense finally figure it out, or will Auburn once again look unstoppable on the first scripted drive and invisible for the rest of the game?

Arkansas owns the 121st-ranked defense in the country, giving up 32.7 points per game, while Auburn’s offense sits at 107th. Put Auburn’s defense with Arkansas’ offense and you’d have a title contender. Combine Arkansas’ defense with Auburn’s offense, and you’d get a team that couldn’t beat a bye week.

Arkansas will score, that much is certain. They rank near the top of the SEC in most offensive categories and put up a combined 73 points in back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M, both by just three points. Holding that offense in check would be another testament to how good Auburn’s defense really is.

The real question is whether Auburn’s offense can finally show up. Against one of the worst defenses in the conference, anything short of steady ball movement is another ding on Freeze's report card. Arkansas isn't stopping anyone and is allowing over 200 yards on the ground in their last four games.

Freeze noted that all three quarterbacks will be ready to go this weekend. Deuce Knight hasn’t played since the Ball State game on September 6, where he didn’t look ready, and based on Freeze’s Monday presser, Ashton Daniels appears next in line to get snaps.

Injury Report

Auburn catches a break with Connor Lew out, as Arkansas’ defensive line is already thin. Their top defender, Cam Ball, will also miss the game. Freeze plans to move right tackle Mason Murphy, who has never played center, into the role, along with 17-year-old true freshman Kail Ellis, who struggled with high snaps against Missouri.

Final Thoughts

Realistically, if Auburn can’t win this one, where exactly does a win come from? Mercer? Kentucky has taken both Ole Miss and Texas down to the wire, Vanderbilt suddenly looks unbeatable, and Alabama has improved leaps and bounds with Ty Simpson since their season-opening loss to Florida State. The Tide have now rattled off six straight wins.

Rain is expected in Fayetteville on Saturday, which could level the playing field slightly. Add in the uncertain quarterback situation, and this makes the game difficult to predict. It's a must-win for Auburn if there’s going to be any shot at bowl eligibility. Granted, it might be a Mobile County Credit Union–type bowl, but a bowl nonetheless. Still, Auburn has yet to prove it can move the ball consistently, and I don’t see the Tigers keeping pace with Arkansas’ fast-tempo offense.

My prediction:
Arkansas 31 - Auburn 24