Week 7 Preview: Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry returns for its 130th chapter this weekend, with No. 10 Georgia rolling into Jordan-Hare. After dropping nine of the last ten, can Hugh Freeze and Auburn finally change the story?

How to watch:
Date: Saturday, Oct. 11 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn, AL)
TV: ABC | Live stream: ESPN, Fubo

Georgia’s getting everything Hugh Freeze can cook up after the bye week. With Cam Newton’s jersey retirement, a night game, and a match-up that lines up well for Auburn, it’s not dramatic to say Freeze's tenure might hinge on this one.

Freeze's Gameplan

Whether we can believe him or not, Freeze wants to commit to the run. Unfortunately for Freeze, this is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 13 in rushing defense going into Jordan-Hare, limiting Kentucky to just two yards per carry and Alabama to 3.1 YPC.

Still, it's been several weeks since we've seen Alston and Cobb get an opportunity to do anything but block and act as decoys, with just 21 combined touches over the past two games. Auburn will need to establish the run game to open up opportunities for Arnold against Georgia's weaker pass defense. If Freeze refuses to get Alston and Cobb involved, then there is no path to victory.

Whether Freeze finally decides to commit to the run game or lets Arnold air it out, Auburn should have an easier time against Georgia's defense than it did against Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The Tigers are going to have to find a way to improve on third-down conversions and finally find the end zone to have a shot at a win.

Bulldogs Struggling to Pressure QBs

Georgia enters this game with just seven sacks on the season. With the Bulldogs' utter lack of a pass rush, if there's a game for Jackson Arnold to shine, this has to be it. The Tigers O-line has already allowed 21 sacks this season, but if they can keep Arnold upright against a weaker Georgia front, it'll show they're starting to figure things out. The Bulldogs are giving up just over 231 passing yards per game, ranking 86th in the FBS.

Jackson Arnold has done an incredible job of protecting the football, and Freeze believes that's a big reason why the Tigers remained within striking distance of both Texas A&M and Oklahoma:

“Him doing that, as poorly as we played, kept us in the game and gave us a chance to win. There’s a lot of positives with that,” Freeze added. “Certainly, don’t want him to play out of any fear. Hopefully, with our meetings throughout last week, and our game-planning this week maybe he will be a little more free to give our kids a chance.”

We can both praise Arnold for ball security and criticize him for being too risk-averse. If he’s going to shine in this game, he’ll have to trust his O-line to give him time and, for once, trust his playmakers to make something happen.

Stopping Georgia's Offense

In a head-to-head, Gunner Stockton has simply been the better dual-threat quarterback this year. Similar to Arnold, he's careful with the ball and tends to use his legs at the first sign of trouble. As good as Stockton is at protecting the football, Georgia is still a -2 in turnover margin, ranking 93rd in the FBS, compared to Auburn’s +4 margin, which ranks 25th. I think you can imagine how a Georgia turnover could ignite Jordan-Hare.

Strength meets strength in the trenches: Georgia's true freshman RB Chauncey Bowens is the real deal and Nate Frazier is no slouch either. The Bulldogs average 211 rushing yards per game, ranking 19th nationally, against Auburn’s stout rushing defense that’s allowing just 88 yards per game, good for 15th. Bowens was averaging about 10 YPC against Alabama.

Here's where Auburn has an advantage: Georgia comes into this game with a banged up O-line. Their healthy guys are young, relying on true freshmen to protect Stockton. Auburn’s defensive rotation is championship caliber: Keyron Crawford, Xavier Atkins, and Keldric Faulk are all in the driver’s seat as key difference makers in this game. Protection for Stockton, in this game, should be hard to come by.

Injury Report

No surprises here for Auburn.

My Prediction

You don’t want to rely on miracles, but it feels like we’re close to, if not in, that position. Auburn hasn't had an otherworldly moment since the Gus Malzahn era, and hasn't beaten Georgia since 2017.

However, I believe this is a match-up where Auburn's strengths match-up well against Georgia's weaknesses. Georgia survived their road trip against Tennessee but I think Auburn has a chance here.

I've backed myself into a corner and my Cammy Cam Juice is nearly gone. At the beginning of Auburn’s road trip to Oklahoma, I stated that Auburn is going to win at least one of their next three games, and this is their final chance to do so. Two weeks isn't enough time to fix everything wrong with Freeze's offense, but I'm optimistic that after the bye week, Auburn will come out swinging. With Cam Newton’s jersey going up at halftime, if Auburn keeps it close early, expect the Tigers to light up Jordan-Hare in the second half.

Auburn 24 - Georgia 20