Week 5 Preview: Auburn Tigers vs. Texas A&M Aggies

How to watch:
Date: Saturday, Sept. 27 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kyle Field (College Station, TX)
TV: ESPN | Live stream: ESPN, Fubo, Sling

Auburn hits the road again this weekend, taking on No. 9 Texas A&M in a crucial SEC showdown. The Aggies come in fresh off a bye week, while the Tigers try to bounce back from a shakedown in Norman.

Back to Basics

Hugh Freeze admitted Monday that he should’ve leaned on the run more against Oklahoma. Last weekend, Jeremiah Cobb and Damari Alston combined for just 13 carries. For comparison, they had 32 carries between them against Baylor and 27 total against South Alabama.

Look for that to change this week. It's well-documented that Texas A&M has faltered against the run, allowing 139 rushing yards per game. In their opener against UTSA, the Aggies gave up 203 rushing yards—including 177 yards on just 16 carries (11.1 per attempt) by UTSA’s lead back. The Aggies have struggled with missed tackles against the run, and Cobb excels at forcing them.

If Auburn can establish the ground game early, it should open things up for Jackson Arnold to get the ball to Auburn’s elite receiver group. Arnold held the ball too long against Oklahoma and must convert with his open looks this week. While A&M's pass rush isn't as intimidating as Oklahoma's, Arnold will need to be sharper, especially with edge rusher Cashius Howell still ranking second in the SEC in sacks even after the Aggies’ bye week. Adding to the challenge, Auburn's star center Connor Lew may not be at his full strength if he sees the field on Saturday.

The Tigers will, however, be without Horatio Fields, who’s out with a broken foot. Fields has been one of Arnold’s most reliable third-down targets, so Freeze will look to see if Perry Thompson can step into that role.

On a brighter note, Freeze also shared that kicker Alex McPherson made two 50-yard field goals in practice today. Previously capped at 25 yards, McPherson looks healthier with each passing week. While Auburn has made strides in special teams during this week of practice, the defense must now contain Marcel Reed, who will be targeting the most talented wide receiver corps the Tigers have faced this year.

Stopping Marcel Reed and the A&M Run Game: The Crawfords

A&M's rushing attack will be the biggest test yet for Auburn's No. 1 run defense. Going into this game, the Tigers are allowing just 58.3 YPG rushing, while the Aggies average 179 YPG on the ground. Freeze noted in his presser, "They've got a great running game, the best running game we've seen… This will test our run defense for sure, because as soon as you commit too many people to it, they've got players that can really make you pay. It's an excellent football team and one that will be in the playoff discussion for sure."

Easier said than done. Limiting A&M on the ground is critical because any overcommitment could leave the Tigers' secondary exposed. Auburn's pass defense has already been heavily exploited this season, with Baylor and Oklahoma combining for 690 total passing yards. Now they must contend with A&M's excellent wide receiver group – Mario Craver and KC Concepcion mirror the skill and playmaking ability of Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton. Fortunately for Auburn, their leading corner Jay Crawford has been cleared from the latest injury report.

Auburn will need to counter with what DJ Durkin does best, attacking up front. Keyron Crawford is playing like an All-American, leading Auburn’s defense in nearly every category, including 18 tackles, 5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 forced fumble.

Durkin will aim to force the Aggies into as many third-down situations as possible. While Texas A&M has done well at avoiding third downs, they’ve struggled to convert, ranking 109th nationally with a 34.3% conversion rate. Auburn’s defense ranks 26th in this category, holding opponents to just 28.1% on third downs.

Both teams enter Saturday’s matchup relatively healthy. DE Amaris Williams has been upgraded to probable and would be a huge boon for Durkin’s defense if he suits up.

Injury Report

Wrapping Up

Auburn looked like the better team against Oklahoma last week for most of the game. Controversial officiating aside, the Tigers had chances to win but couldn’t capitalize.

The Aggies’ defense isn’t on Oklahoma’s level, but their offense can be overwhelming. Auburn should be able to get back to running the ball, and after last week’s showing, I think the Tigers can pull this one out.

This feels like a game that will come down to the final possession, and with a healthy Alex McPherson, I give Auburn the edge. And call it a curse if you want, but A&M teams have a weird habit of crumbling after cracking the top 10. I'm not superstitious but I'll take any sort of mental gymnastics available this game for Auburn to come out on top.

Auburn 27, Texas A&M 24