Auburn Tigers Take on Missouri After Statement Win

The Auburn Tigers hit the road to face a towering Missouri squad after showing their ceiling in a dominant 95–73 win against Arkansas. Below is a breakdown of the Razorbacks game and a preview of the Missouri Tigers.

How to watch:
Date: Wednesday, Jan. 14  | Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Mizzou Arena (Columbia, Missouri)
TV: ESPN2 | Live Stream: ESPN+

Auburn’s Arkansas Win Sets a New Standard

This probably didn’t go as most expected. To me, Arkansas was the best-looking team in the SEC so far this season. It’s hard not to think that if Auburn had played like this against Georgia and Texas A&M, those games could have turned into blowouts.

This game served as a benchmark, showing this Auburn group what it’s capable of at its best. The players have now seen both ends of the spectrum, and Coach Pearl can point to this performance as the standard moving forward. Pearl can also look inward and know he out-coached future Hall of Famer, John Calipari, on the other sideline.

This team can score. That’s been true all year. Shooting 57% from the floor and 45% from three will win most games, but the standout stat was the 20 assists. There was no hero ball and no unrestrained dribbling. According to 247Sports, Coach Pearl emphasized this point in practice on Monday, asking the team:

"Do you like winning? Selfish offense leads to selfish defense. Unselfish offense leads to unselfish defense. And I thought we had a lot of unselfish offense against Arkansas, and it led to a lot of unselfish defense against Arkansas."

Keyshawn Hall gave the Tigers 30 points while showing increased effort on the defensive end. Tahaad Pettiford dished out seven assists. KeShawn Murphy recorded a double-double with 16 points and 10 boards. Filip Jović and Elyjah Freeman continue to improve with every minute they're on the floor.

Blake Muschalek played 10 minutes, his most action of the season. Coach Steven Pearl explained that Kaden Magwood had been late to practice, something Pearl clearly won't tolerate. Muschalek's minutes were efficient: five points on 2-for-2 shooting from the line and 1-for-1 from deep, while adding a steal. While Magwood can offer more offensive upside, Muschalek brings consistent defensive effort, though he'd find himself in foul trouble quickly if asked to play extended minutes.

Arkansas had more length than Auburn, and Missouri has even more length than Arkansas. Mizzou is a solid team, but they don't do one particular thing exceptionally well on either side of the ball.

Auburn vs. Missouri Matchup Breakdown

After a loss to Ole Miss in Oxford, Mizzou sits at 2–1 in SEC play with a narrow victory over Florida and a win against a disappointing Kentucky team. The Tigers are also undefeated at home at 10–0.

Auburn will need to find an answer to Mizzou's leading scorer, Mark Mitchell. Not only can he score, he facilitates extremely well. Missouri ranks as a top-15 team in two-point scoring but sits around 70th nationally in three-point shooting.

Given Missouri’s size, KeShawn Murphy and Jović will need to replicate their performances against Arkansas to slow Mizzou’s attack. In Coach Pearl’s preview, he noted that continued improvement from both players will be key to Auburn’s success moving forward.

So far this season, Missouri has struggled to defend the perimeter. That may change after reviewing the Arkansas tape, but opponents are currently averaging 9.5 made threes per game against the Tigers.

Missouri’s downfall against Ole Miss came at the free-throw line. One of the worst teams in the nation from the charity stripe, Mizzou went just 12-for-24 against the Rebels and is shooting 66.3% on the season. With a limited bench, Auburn will need to be smart on how they exploit this weakness without getting into early foul trouble.

The bottom line is that the onus is on Missouri to win in a shootout, and I don't know if they're capable of keeping up with Auburn. Following the Arkansas game, Auburn now has the second-best offensive rating in the SEC behind Alabama and ranks in the top 10 nationally, according to KenPom.

Prediction and Final Thoughts: Auburn vs. Missouri

If this were a neutral-site game, Auburn would be the clear pick. With Mizzou undefeated at home, it feels closer to a toss-up, though it’s still hard to go against the Tigers from the Plains after their performance against Arkansas.

In previous articles, I mentioned that the first six games of SEC play represent the softest stretch of the schedule. Auburn needs to go at least 2–1 during this upcoming stint because of what lies ahead. It’s hard to look at the next six and confidently say Auburn could go .500: Florida (away), Texas, Tennessee (away), Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas (away).

For now, the focus is getting out of Columbia with a win.

My Prediction:
Auburn 88, Missouri 85

Here's the breakdown of the current standings in the SEC:

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