Auburn Tigers’ March Madness Outlook
The Tigers are on a four-game losing streak after falling to Arkansas in Fayetteville. With a hastily assembled roster, season-long injuries, and heavy disciplinary action — including the indefinite suspension of leading scorer Keyshawn Hall — Coach Pearl faces the challenge of stabilizing the team over the final six conference games.
What once felt like a near guarantee after Auburn’s upset win at Florida now feels less certain, though first-year head coach Steven Pearl’s tournament hopes remain well within reach.
Keyshawn Hall and Auburn's March Madness Hopes
Coach Pearl has kept specifics guarded as to why Keyshawn Hall has not seen the floor since being benched in the second half against Vanderbilt.
Could Hall have tipped the scales against Arkansas? Likely not, unless he could have consistently contested Darius Acuff Jr. on the perimeter. Still, the Tigers, led by Tahaad Pettiford and KeShawn Murphy, stepped up. Pettiford finished with 29 points and seven assists, while Murphy posted a career-high 22 points and 12 rebounds.
Given what Steven Pearl has accomplished so far, I trust he’s handling these disciplinary decisions correctly. Auburn’s young, impressionable players need to understand what will and won’t be tolerated. Accountability matters, especially with Sebastian Williams-Adams, Filip Jović, Elyjah Freeman, and even Pettiford potentially returning next season.
Hall traveled with the Tigers to Fayetteville and appeared engaged and enthusiastic. Whether forced or not, he’s heading in the right direction. Coach Pearl now faces the delicate task of balancing discipline with the need to get Hall back on the court in time to help secure a tournament spot — no easy job for a first-year coach already under heavy scrutiny.
Auburn Tigers' NCAA Tournament Outlook
Auburn sits at an uneasy 14-11 overall record. Fortunately for the Tigers, four of those wins are Quad 1: St. John's, NC State, Arkansas, and Florida. It feels like the sky is falling as of late but current projections do have Auburn in the tournament largely thanks to their strength of schedule.
It's no mystery that Bruce left his son with a brutal slate. Auburn currently owns the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country, a major factor propping up its tournament outlook. The Tigers sit at a NET ranking of 33, projecting as a 9 or 10 seed.
| Category | Projection |
|---|---|
| Make Tournament | 95.6% |
| Automatic Bid | 2.2% |
| At-Large Bid | 93.5% |
| Most Likely Seed | No. 9 (23.3%) |
| Final Four Odds | 1.6% |
| National Title Odds | 0.1% |
Data: Teamrankings
For now, there's no need to panic. If the Tigers can put the brakes on this skid, they'll have their spot in the tournament come March.
Final Stretch to March Madness
The Tigers kick off their final third of the season with a must-win game on the road against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Following that, Auburn faces Kentucky at home, Oklahoma away, Ole Miss at home, LSU at home, and finally Alabama away.
Realistically, the Tigers could win four of the final six games. Even a .500 split would keep Auburn in a strong position for the tournament — an admirable feat for a first-year coach with a cobbled-together roster.
However, should this losing streak continue, March aspirations will become far more stressful for the Auburn faithful.
Current SEC Standings
| Team | Conf | Overall | Home | Away | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 10–2 | 19–6 | 11–1 | 5–2 | W5 |
| Arkansas | 9–3 | 19–6 | 13–1 | 4–3 | W3 |
| Vanderbilt | 8–4 | 21–4 | 12–2 | 6–2 | W2 |
| Tennessee | 8–4 | 18–7 | 13–1 | 3–4 | W2 |
| Alabama | 8–4 | 18–7 | 9–3 | 5–2 | W4 |
| Kentucky | 8–4 | 17–8 | 13–2 | 3–4 | L1 |
| Missouri | 7–5 | 17–8 | 13–2 | 4–4 | L1 |
| Texas A&M | 7–5 | 17–8 | 12–3 | 4–4 | L4 |
| Texas | 7–5 | 16–9 | 11–3 | 3–4 | W4 |
| Georgia | 5–7 | 17–8 | 11–4 | 4–3 | L2 |
| Auburn | 5–7 | 14–11 | 9–3 | 2–5 | L4 |
| Mississippi State | 4–8 | 12–13 | 7–6 | 4–3 | W1 |
| Oklahoma | 3–9 | 13–12 | 9–4 | 2–6 | W2 |
| Ole Miss | 3–9 | 11–14 | 7–5 | 2–6 | L7 |
| LSU | 2–10 | 14–11 | 9–5 | 2–5 | L3 |
| South Carolina | 2–10 | 11–14 | 10–6 | 1–6 | L6 |
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