Auburn Tigers March Madness 2026: Bubble Watch & Tournament Chances
After a brutal loss in Norman, Auburn Tigers basketball is on the razor’s edge of keeping its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Here’s a look at where experts and predictive models have Auburn landing and what still needs to happen for March Madness 2026.
Tournament Selection
For projection purposes, I’m assuming Auburn finishes the regular season 2–1, with the lone loss coming against Alabama. That likely keeps the Tigers in the conversation, but with little margin for error.
Bracketology: Auburn Tigers’ NCAA Tournament Odds
If there’s one name you don’t want hovering around your program in late February, it’s Joe Lunardi. Lunardi’s “art and science” of bracketology currently has Auburn as one of the Last Four Byes, even after the loss to Oklahoma and just one win in its last seven games.
Discussed ad nauseam, Auburn’s Quad 1 opponents are doing a lot of heavy lifting on the résumé. If you’re an Auburn fan, you want those conversations among analysts and committee members to continue. The more Auburn’s schedule strength is emphasized, the better its chances.
NET Rankings
One of the primary tools guiding the selection committee is the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which sorts wins and losses into four quadrants based on quality.
Auburn currently sits 36th in NET.
Teams ranked in the 30–40 range are generally considered “on the bubble”: good enough to get in, but far from secure. Historically, teams ranked around 34th or better are usually safe. Those outside that range are far more vulnerable. Here's how the NET Top 40 shakes out:
| Rk | School | Rec | Conf | Road | Neu | Home | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 26-2 | ACC | 9-1 | 4-1 | 13-0 | 12-2 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 8-0 |
| 2 | Michigan | 26-2 | Big Ten | 9-0 | 4-1 | 13-1 | 10-1 | 10-1 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 3 | Arizona | 26-2 | Big 12 | 8-1 | 4-0 | 14-1 | 12-2 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| 4 | Illinois | 22-6 | Big Ten | 7-2 | 2-2 | 13-2 | 8-5 | 6-1 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| 5 | Gonzaga | 27-2 | WCC | 8-1 | 5-1 | 14-0 | 6-1 | 5-0 | 9-1 | 7-0 |
| 6 | Purdue | 22-5 | Big Ten | 7-2 | 3-0 | 12-3 | 8-5 | 4-0 | 7-0 | 3-0 |
| 7 | Florida | 21-6 | SEC | 6-2 | 3-3 | 12-1 | 8-5 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 5-0 |
| 8 | Iowa St. | 24-4 | Big 12 | 5-4 | 4-0 | 15-0 | 6-4 | 10-0 | 1-0 | 7-0 |
| 9 | Houston | 23-5 | Big 12 | 5-3 | 5-1 | 13-1 | 7-5 | 8-0 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| 10 | UConn | 25-3 | Big East | 9-1 | 3-0 | 13-2 | 8-8 | 8-1 | 6-1 | 5-0 |
| 11 | Nebraska | 23-4 | Big Ten | 6-2 | 3-0 | 14-2 | 7-4 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
| 12 | Michigan St. | 22-5 | Big Ten | 4-3 | 4-0 | 14-2 | 6-5 | 7-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| 13 | Virginia | 25-3 | ACC | 8-1 | 3-1 | 14-1 | 6-2 | 7-1 | 6-0 | 6-0 |
| 14 | Kansas | 21-7 | Big 12 | 5-4 | 3-1 | 13-2 | 8-6 | 7-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 15 | Texas Tech | 21-7 | Big 12 | 4-4 | 3-2 | 14-1 | 7-7 | 4-0 | 7-0 | 3-0 |
| 16 | Louisville | 20-8 | ACC | 3-6 | 3-0 | 14-2 | 7-8 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 8-0 |
| 17 | Vanderbilt | 21-6 | SEC | 6-3 | 3-0 | 12-3 | 8-5 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| 18 | Arkansas | 20-7 | SEC | 4-4 | 1-2 | 15-1 | 6-7 | 5-0 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| 19 | Alabama | 20-7 | SEC | 6-2 | 4-2 | 10-3 | 7-6 | 7-1 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 20 | Tennessee | 20-8 | SEC | 4-5 | 2-2 | 14-1 | 5-7 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 7-0 |
| 21 | BYU | 20-8 | Big 12 | 3-4 | 6-1 | 11-3 | 6-6 | 6-2 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| 22 | St. John’s | 22-5 | Big East | 8-0 | 1-3 | 13-2 | 3-4 | 8-0 | 8-1 | 3-0 |
| 23 | Utah St. | 22-4 | Mountain West | 7-3 | 4-0 | 11-1 | 3-2 | 7-1 | 8-1 | 4-0 |
| 24 | Saint Louis | 24-3 | A-10 | 7-2 | 1-1 | 16-0 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 8-0 | 10-0 |
| 25 | North Carolina | 22-6 | ACC | 4-5 | 2-1 | 16-0 | 6-6 | 2-0 | 9-0 | 5-0 |
| 26 | Saint Mary’s | 24-4 | WCC | 8-2 | 2-2 | 14-0 | 1-3 | 6-1 | 10-0 | 7-0 |
| 27 | Iowa | 19-8 | Big Ten | 3-6 | 3-0 | 13-2 | 3-7 | 6-0 | 4-1 | 6-0 |
| 28 | NC State | 19-9 | ACC | 6-3 | 2-2 | 11-4 | 4-6 | 7-2 | 4-0 | 4-1 |
| 29 | Kentucky | 18-10 | SEC | 4-5 | 1-2 | 13-3 | 5-8 | 4-2 | 3-0 | 6-0 |
| 30 | SMU | 19-8 | ACC | 3-5 | 1-1 | 15-2 | 4-6 | 3-2 | 5-0 | 7-0 |
| 31 | Villanova | 21-6 | Big East | 8-2 | 2-1 | 11-3 | 2-5 | 7-0 | 8-1 | 4-0 |
| 32 | Wisconsin | 19-8 | Big Ten | 4-3 | 1-3 | 14-2 | 5-7 | 6-1 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| 33 | Georgia | 19-8 | SEC | 5-3 | 2-1 | 12-4 | 4-6 | 6-1 | 0-1 | 9-0 |
| 34 | Miami (FL) | 22-6 | ACC | 7-2 | 1-2 | 14-2 | 3-4 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 10-0 |
| 35 | Ohio St. | 17-10 | Big Ten | 4-5 | 1-2 | 12-3 | 1-9 | 6-1 | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| 36 | Auburn | 15-13 | SEC | 2-7 | 3-3 | 10-3 | 5-11 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 6-0 |
| 37 | Texas | 16-10 | SEC | 3-5 | 1-2 | 12-3 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 7-0 |
| 38 | Clemson | 20-8 | ACC | 6-4 | 3-1 | 11-3 | 4-5 | 6-2 | 3-1 | 7-0 |
| 39 | UCLA | 19-9 | Big Ten | 3-5 | 0-3 | 16-1 | 3-7 | 6-2 | 3-0 | 7-0 |
| 40 | Indiana | 17-11 | Big Ten | 3-7 | 1-1 | 13-3 | 2-10 | 2-1 | 6-0 | 7-0 |
Data taken from NCAA.com
KenPom and Torvik Rankings
Two additional metrics frequently referenced by the committee are KenPom and Bart Torvik.
Auburn ranks:
- 39th in KenPom
- 40th in Torvik
The two systems are similar, relying heavily on offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) and defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions). Torvik differentiates itself slightly by removing “garbage time” possessions.
Summary
Models are mostly in agreement that Auburn is a competitive but flawed team. When it comes time for Selection Sunday, the human element will have to weigh in on the fate of this Auburn team. Finishing 2‑1 gives Auburn a coin‑flip chance of getting in. Going 3‑0 would nearly guarantee a tournament spot. A loss to either LSU or Ole Miss would likely be the final nail in the coffin for this season.
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