Auburn Clings to NCAA Tournament Bubble Entering SEC Tournament

After what can only be described as a total collapse in the back half of conference play, the Auburn Tigers enter the 2026 SEC Basketball Tournament as a No. 12 seed. In this article, we'll dive deeper into Auburn's slim chance at an NCAA Tournament bid along with a preview of the Tigers' first opponent in the SEC Tournament, Mississippi State.

How to watch: #12 Auburn Tigers vs. #13 Mississippi State
Date: Wednesday, March 11 | Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, TN)
TV: SEC Network | Live Stream: SEC Network+

Auburn Still Clinging to the NCAA Tournament Bubble

Now, whether you'd like to see this team die with some dignity or get a bid into the tournament, conference tournament games historically do not hold much weight. That is, except for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble, like Auburn.

Joe Lunardi, under heavy criticism lately, has had Auburn in an in-and-out spiral on his bracket for the past few weeks. Here's his latest Bracketology report from Sunday afternoon showing that Auburn is once again "in", even after the loss against Alabama.

However hated it may be, there is some science to Auburn once again being a part of the Last Four In. Nearly every team on the bubble lost their most recent game, and according to Lunardi, Auburn is the team with the best resume chasing that last spot.

Personally, I'd like to watch more Auburn basketball. If you feel the same way, you would want Santa Clara to lose their game tonight. You will also want Miami-OH to win the MAC Tournament so the league’s automatic bid doesn’t steal an at-large spot.

However, this is all wasted breath and bytes if Auburn can't win at least two games in Nashville. With Auburn’s NCAA Tournament hopes hanging by a thread, the Tigers first have to survive their opening-round matchup in Nashville.

Matchup Preview: Auburn Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

In a long stretch of "must-win" games for Auburn, this is the final one. It's time to win or go home.

“I don’t know what more urgency you need at this point.”
-Coach Steven Pearl

To the surprise of no one who has watched Auburn defend guards this season, the Tigers were torched by Josh Hubbard in the previous matchup back in February. Hubbard set a new program record for the Bulldogs with 10 three-pointers and finished with a career-high 46 points.

Mississippi State as a team shot 50% from the floor and 53% from behind the arc. Impressive numbers for Hubbard and the Bulldogs, but Auburn still only lost by six.

Keyshawn Hall played all 40 minutes in the previous matchup, finishing with 29 points and 10 rebounds.

KeShawn Murphy will likely be looking for redemption after a rough outing against his former school in that game. Murphy shot just 1-of-7 from the floor and was taunted by Hubbard at the end of the game, shouting to Murphy, “You don’t leave State.”

Auburn is going to have to find a way to put the clamps on Hubbard and run him off the three-point line if the Tigers want to survive their SEC Tournament matchup against Mississippi State. I have been a Steven Pearl supporter all year, but now is the time for him to earn his stripes as a defensive-minded coach.

2026 SEC Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket

Final Thoughts and Prediction

As frustrating as this season has been to watch, you have to keep some perspective. First-year head coach Steven Pearl was thrown to the wolves with this schedule and a roster that hasn’t quite panned out so far. There are some silver linings – Sebastian Williams-Adams, Filip Jović, and Elyjah Freeman have been our young bright spots and I'd like to see all three of them return to the Plains next season.

Regardless of what happens on Wednesday, I have — and will — reserve judgment on Coach Pearl this year based on those factors. But once he has a roster of his own next season, he won't be above harsh criticism.

Time to see if this squad has any fight left in them. This same team beat Florida in Gainesville!

My prediction:
Auburn 82, Mississippi State 78